Austria’s far-right Freedom Party (FPÖ) is projected to win the national parliamentary election, marking a significant shift in Austrian politics. The party, led by Herbert Kickl, has capitalised on voter anxieties surrounding immigration, inflation, and the war in Ukraine. The FPÖ’s victory is a testament to its successful campaign strategy, focusing on populist rhetoric and tapping into public dissatisfaction with the current government.

Rise of the Far-Right: A Victory Driven by Populism and Anxiety

The FPÖ’s victory is not a sudden surge, but rather a gradual rise in popularity over the past few years. This success can be attributed to a number of factors, including:

Capitalising on Public Anxieties:

The FPÖ has skillfully tapped into voter anxieties about economic instability, rising inflation, and the perceived threat of immigration. Their campaign, dubbed “Fortress Austria,” promised strict border controls, tighter asylum laws, and a more “homogeneous” nation. This rhetoric resonates with those who feel marginalized and disillusioned by mainstream politics.

Utilizing Populist Tactics:

The FPÖ’s campaign relied heavily on populist tactics, employing divisive language and targeting those who feel forgotten by the political establishment. Kickl, the FPÖ’s leader, has relentlessly criticised “elites” in Brussels, accusing them of ignoring the concerns of ordinary Austrians.

Benefitting from a Disgruntled Electorate:

The FPÖ has gained support from voters disillusioned with the current coalition government, led by Chancellor Karl Nehammer’s Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP). The ÖVP, along with the Greens, has faced criticism for its handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, rising inflation, and the war in Ukraine.

Unclear Future: The Challenge of Forming a Coalition Government

Despite the FPÖ’s projected victory, its ability to form a government remains uncertain. While the party aims for Kickl to become the new Chancellor, other parties have vehemently opposed working with the FPÖ in a coalition. The ÖVP, which has ruled out forming a government with Kickl, has become the FPÖ’s only realistic path to power. This situation presents a unique challenge and underscores the fragile political landscape in Austria.

Uncertainities in Coalition Negotiations:

The potential for coalition negotiations between the FPÖ and the ÖVP remains highly uncertain. The ÖVP has repeatedly expressed its reluctance to work with the FPÖ, citing Kickl’s far-right policies and potential threat to democracy.

Potential Alternative Coalitions:

Other possible coalition options include a government formed by the ÖVP and the center-left Social Democrats, with or without the liberal Neos. However, these partnerships face significant ideological hurdles and may not be feasible in the current political climate.

Implications for Austria and Europe

The FPÖ’s projected victory has significant implications for both Austria and the wider European Union. It signals a rise in populist and nationalist sentiment across Europe, mirroring similar trends in other countries. The FPÖ’s stance on issues such as immigration, European integration, and foreign policy could have far-reaching consequences for Austria and its relations with its European neighbors.

Impacts on Austrian Foreign Policy:

The FPÖ’s foreign policy stance, characterized by its anti-EU sentiments and pro-Russia stance, could significantly alter Austria’s role within the European Union. The party’s proposal to end sanctions against Russia and its criticism of Western military aid to Ukraine could strain ties with European allies.

Broader European Trends:

The FPÖ’s success reflects a wider trend of growing support for populist and right-wing parties across Europe. The rise of such parties often reflects voter anxieties and concerns about globalization, immigration, and the perceived loss of national identity. These anxieties have been exacerbated by economic downturns and social upheaval, offering fertile ground for populist movements.

Takeaways:

• The FPÖ’s projected victory signals a shift in Austrian politics, driven by a rise in populist sentiment and voter anxieties.
• The formation of a government remains uncertain due to the reluctance of other parties to collaborate with the FPÖ.
• The FPÖ’s success has broader implications for Europe, reflecting a continent-wide rise in populism and nationalism.
• The FPÖ’s policies, especially regarding immigration, European integration, and foreign policy, could have far-reaching consequences for Austria and its relationships with other European countries.