The upcoming regional elections in Thuringia and Saxony, scheduled for September 1, 2024, are poised to deliver a significant setback to Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s government and propel the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) to new heights of political power. This outcome would mark a turning point in Germany’s post-war political landscape, reflecting the anxieties and discontent simmering within the nation’s eastern regions.

A Growing Tide of Discontent in Eastern Germany

The AfD, a party that emerged as an anti-euro movement and later pivoted to focus on immigration concerns, has capitalized on a range of factors contributing to disillusionment in the former East German states. This dissatisfaction stems from economic inequalities, a perception of neglect by the central government, and a sense of cultural alienation.

Economic Resentment

The economic disparities between east and west Germany remain a significant source of frustration for many eastern residents. Despite reunification, the eastern states have lagged behind their western counterparts in terms of economic development, leading to feelings of resentment and unfair treatment. This economic frustration has fueled a desire for political change, making the AfD’s populist economic promises appealing.

Feeling Overlooked

Eastern Germans often perceive the federal government as indifferent to their concerns, leading to a sense of isolation and marginalization. This perception has been further exacerbated by the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, with many easterners feeling that their interests are being overlooked in the push for supporting Ukraine.

Cultural Concerns

The influx of migrants to Germany in recent years, coupled with fears of social and cultural erosion, has contributed to an atmosphere of anxiety and uncertainty in eastern Germany. This anxiety has played directly into the AfD’s hands, as the party has successfully framed itself as the sole defender of traditional values and German identity.

The AfD’s Rising Influence

Opinion polls project a strong showing for the AfD in both Thuringia and Saxony, with the party potentially emerging as the victor in Thuringia. This electoral success would be a stark reminder of the AfD’s increasing influence within German society.

A Landmark Election Result

The possibility of the AfD taking power in Thuringia, while still unlikely due to other parties’ refusal to cooperate with them, would be a major turning point in Germany’s political landscape. It would represent a significant rebuke to the ruling coalition government, reflecting the growing acceptance of far-right politics in Germany.

Concerns about a Far-Right Shift

While the AfD is unlikely to form a government alone, its strong showing in the elections poses significant challenges for the existing political order. It raises serious questions about the future direction of German politics and the extent to which the country’s commitment to democratic values is being eroded by rising anti-establishment sentiment.

Beyond the AfD: Sahra Wagenknecht’s “Bundnis Sahra Wagenknecht”

Adding further complexity to the electoral landscape is the emergence of “Bundnis Sahra Wagenknecht” (BSW), a new far-left political party founded by Sahra Wagenknecht, a prominent figure from Die Linke. Wagenknecht’s party has garnered significant attention, attracting voters dissatisfied with the status quo and drawn to its dovish stance towards Russia and anti-immigration agenda.

Challenging the Political Mainstream

BSW’s strong polling numbers, especially in Saxony and Thuringia, indicate that it is successfully appealing to a segment of the electorate that feels disenchanted with the existing political establishment. The party has seized on anxieties around the conflict in Ukraine and immigration, echoing some of the AfD’s messaging.

Potential for Political Disruption

While BSW’s positions differ substantially from those of the AfD, particularly on issues like Ukraine, the party’s strong showing in the elections could potentially make it a kingmaker in the formation of local governments. This possibility adds another layer of complexity to the political dynamics at play.

The Solingen Attack and the Debate on Immigration

The recent fatal stabbing in Solingen, attributed to a Syrian man with suspected ties to the Islamic State group, has heightened anxieties about immigration and ignited a fierce debate on security measures. The government’s response, involving stricter knife controls and rules for illegal migrants, has been criticized as inadequate by some, particularly the conservative Christian Democratic Union (CDU).

Immigration as a Focal Point

The incident in Solingen has pushed immigration to the forefront of the election campaign, with parties vying for the most hawkish stance on the issue. This intensified focus on immigration is likely to further empower the AfD, which has consistently campaigned on a platform of restrictive immigration policies.

Political Opportunism

While the tragedy in Solingen is undoubtedly a legitimate source of concern, the way in which it has been politicized raises concerns about political opportunism. The eagerness of some parties to capitalize on public anxiety about immigration risks fueling division and prejudice, potentially undermining the country’s commitment to inclusivity.

Takeaways: A Turning Point in German Politics

The upcoming elections in Thuringia and Saxony represent a significant turning point in German politics. The strong showing anticipated for the AfD and the emergence of BSW signal a growing disillusionment with the existing political establishment. The focus on immigration fueled by the Solingen attack further exacerbates existing anxieties and potentially undermines Germany’s commitment to tolerance and diversity.

The results of these elections will be closely watched by policymakers and observers alike, providing crucial insights into the political mood of the nation and the direction it may be headed in the years to come. These elections are a stark reminder that political extremism is on the rise in Germany, posing a serious challenge to the country’s long-standing commitment to democratic values.