India is set to experience above-normal rainfall in September, following a wetter-than-normal August. This comes as a welcome development after the country experienced delayed onset of monsoon rains this year. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted a significant increase in rainfall, particularly in the northwest region, raising concerns about potential flooding and landslides.
Above-Normal Rainfall Expected Across India
The IMD has forecasted above-normal rainfall across most parts of India in September. The expected rainfall is estimated to be 109% of the long-period average of 167.9 mm. This suggests that the country will receive significantly higher rainfall than usual during this month.
Exceptions to the Trend
While most parts of India are expected to receive above-normal rainfall, some regions are likely to experience below-normal rainfall. These areas include:
- Extreme northwest India
- Many parts of the southern peninsula
- Northern Bihar
- Northeastern Uttar Pradesh
- Most of northeast India
Heavy Rainfall and Potential Flooding in Northwest India
The IMD has issued a warning for heavy to very heavy rainfall in northwest India, including Uttarakhand, parts of Himachal Pradesh, Jammu and Kashmir, Rajasthan, and the adjoining areas of Madhya Pradesh.
High Risk of Floods and Landslides
The IMD has highlighted the potential for extremely heavy rainfall in these areas, which could lead to flooding. There are also significant risks of landslides, mudslides, and landslips, emphasizing the need for caution and preparedness in these regions.
Formation of Low-Pressure Systems
The IMD has predicted the development of low-pressure systems over the Bay of Bengal every week in September. These systems are expected to bring significant rainfall across the country as they move towards the northwest.
Impact of Low-Pressure Systems on Rainfall Distribution
The formation of low-pressure systems will play a crucial role in determining the distribution of rainfall across India. The IMD is closely monitoring the movement and intensity of these systems to predict the areas most likely to receive heavy rainfall.
Role of Monsoon Trough and Western Disturbances
The monsoon trough is expected to remain in its normal position during September. The IMD predicts the development of several low-pressure systems in the Bay of Bengal, which could move towards the west-northwest up to Rajasthan.
Potential Shift in Monsoon Trough and Western Disturbance
The monsoon trough may also shift towards the foothills of the Himalayas during the month. Additionally, the IMD has noted a possibility of a western disturbance affecting the region in September. These weather events will significantly impact the overall rainfall pattern in the country.
Implications for Agriculture and Water Resources
The expected above-normal rainfall in September is a positive development for Indian agriculture, particularly in areas experiencing drought conditions. The additional rainfall could replenish groundwater levels, improving agricultural yields. However, the IMD’s warnings about potential flooding highlight the need for proactive flood mitigation measures to minimize damage to crops and infrastructure.
Challenges of Managing Water Resources
While the increased rainfall is beneficial, managing water resources effectively is crucial. Ensuring that excess water is stored for future use and that flood risks are mitigated will be crucial in optimizing the benefits of the anticipated rainfall.
Takeaways
- Above-normal rainfall is expected across most parts of India in September.
- Northwest India is likely to experience heavy to very heavy rainfall, potentially leading to flooding and landslides.
- The development of low-pressure systems over the Bay of Bengal will be crucial in determining the distribution of rainfall.
- The monsoon trough and western disturbances will play a role in the overall rainfall pattern.
- The anticipated rainfall is expected to benefit agriculture, but flood mitigation measures are necessary.
- Effective water resource management is essential to maximize the benefits of the increased rainfall.